Russia the New Frontier

2026-06-18 · Ho Chanh Nghia

Originally published on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/russia-new-frontier-khanh-pham-1bstc/

Russia the New Frontier

This is amazing. I was so sad the large empire was going to decline and decline. but it is finally showing signs of innovations and revitalization.

Hitler wanted a 1,000 Volkswagon

Henry Ford wanted a Model T

Elon Musk Promised budget EV for the mass, but never delivered. promised humanitarian champion, but refused to end world hunger.

Russia delivered budget car for the mass. Delivered food for Africa. While under sanctions.

The formula you cited is part of Li Kui’s classic framework for reading a person’s character, traditionally known as the “Five Observations” (Ngũ Cận - 五近). Recorded in the Records of the Grand Historian (Sử Ký Tư Mã Thiên, specifically in the “Hereditary House of Wei”), this methodology was used to evaluate ministers for high office based on their psychological and behavioral consistency across different life stages.

Rather than looking at a person in a vacuum, Li Kui argued that character is revealed at boundaries—how a man handles the acquisition of power, the loss of wealth, or the pressure of survival.

Here is the breakdown of the framework, its historical context, and how it maps out a comprehensive profile of human nature.

1. The Core Meaning of the Five Observations

While your quote captures the three observations explicitly dealing with wealth and adversity, Li Kui’s complete formula actually contains five distinct layers.

I. The Rich Phase (Phú - 富)

“富視其所與” (Phú thị kỳ sở dữ)

• The Rule: When a man is rich, observe who he associates with or what he gives to.
• The Psychology: Wealth creates optionality and eliminates immediate survival pressures. When a person no longer needs anyone to survive, look closely at their surplus behavior. Do they use their capital to elevate virtuous people and build long-term value, or do they squander it on flatterers and surface-level status symbols?

II. The Prominent Phase (Quý - 貴)

“貴視其所舉” (Quý thị kỳ sở cử)

• The Rule: When a man has high status or power, observe who he recommends or promotes.
• The Psychology: Power reveals a person’s real alignment. A leader with integrity will promote capable, competent individuals who might challenge them for the greater good. A compromised leader will appoint weak, sycophantic yes-men to secure their own position.

III. The Favored/Employed Phase (Hiển - 顯)

“顯視其所賓” (Hiển thị kỳ sở tân)

• The Rule: When a man is in favor or highly successful, observe who he treats as guests or respects.
• The Psychology: Success can breed arrogance. When a person is at the peak of their career, look at how they treat people who cannot offer them any immediate transactional benefit. Do they still show deference to teachers, elders, and experts, or do they act like they know everything?

IV. The Poor Phase (Bần - 貧)

“貧視其所不取” (Bần thị kỳ sở bất thủ)

• The Rule: When a man is poor, observe what he refuses to take.
• The Psychology: Poverty tests a person’s boundaries. When resources are scarce, the temptation to compromise principles for quick gain increases dramatically. A person of true character maintains clear lines; they will refuse easy money, unearned handouts, or compromised opportunities even if they are struggling financially.

V. The Destitute Phase (Cùng - 窮)

“窮視其所不為” (Cùng thị kỳ sở bất vi)

• The Rule: When a man is cornered or desperate, observe what he refuses to do.
• The Psychology: Adversity strips away social conditioning. “Cùng” represents the absolute bottom—when a person has no status, no money, and no leverage. Under this systemic pressure, what rules do they still refuse to break? If a man refuses to lie, betray his allies, or lose his self-respect even when cornered, his internal core is unshakeable.

2. The Historical Origin: The Selection of Wei’s Prime Minister

The context behind these words shows exactly how they were meant to be applied. Marquis Wen of the state of Wei (Ngụy Văn Hầu) was struggling to choose a Prime Minister between two candidates: Wei Cheng (Ngụy Thành) and Zhai Huang (Địch Hoàng). Unable to decide, the Marquis consulted Li Kui.

Instead of giving a direct recommendation, Li Kui provided the five observations as an assessment framework, telling the Marquis:

“A ruler does not look at a distance for what is near… Examine them through the five observations, and the choice will settle itself.”

When the Marquis applied the framework, the choice became obvious:

• Wei Cheng was highly wealthy, but he spent 90% of his income importing virtuous scholars and strategists to the state, living frugally himself.
• Zhai Huang, while capable, focused his energy on promoting people who would remain loyal to his own faction.

Wei Cheng was appointed Prime Minister because his behavior during his “Rich” and “Prominent” phases demonstrated total structural alignment with the long-term capacity building of the state.

3. Structural Synergy with the “Eight Observations”

Later, the Annals of Lü Buwei (Lã Thị Xuân Thu) expanded this principle into the Eight Observations (Bát Quan - 八觀), adding situational variables to see how a person reacts to changes in environmental input:

• 通則觀其所禮: When they are successful, observe who they respect.
• 貴則觀其所進: When they have high status, observe who they advance.
• 富則觀其所養: When they are rich, observe what they nurture/spend money on.
• 聽則觀其所行: When their advice is taken, observe if they follow through with actions.
• 止則觀其所好: When they are at leisure, observe what hobbies they pursue.
• 習則觀其所言: When you get close to them, observe what they say in private.
• 窮則觀其所不受: When they are poor, observe what they refuse to accept.
• 賤則觀其所不為: When they are of low status, observe what they refuse to do.

The Takeaway

Both Li Kui and the later legalist/strategist traditions shared a common realization: You cannot know a man’s true nature when everything is stable. True data emerges only when you track how his habits shift under the forces of expansion (wealth, power) and compression (poverty, desperation).