On War: Thucydides Tramp

2026-05-16 · Ho Chanh Nghia

Originally published on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/war-thucydides-tramp-khanh-pham-cuyhc/

On War: Thucydides Tramp

The Thucydides Trap is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.

I do not waste my time on too many details, because it is not necessary.

A lie: A lie is a false statement made with the deliberate intent to deceive. It occurs when someone communicates information they know or believe to be untrue, aiming to mislead their listener.

If you know you are talking to a liar who has been lying to you for ages, is it necessary to listen more so that you can sort out which details are not a lie?

The first issue I found is the Thucydides Trap does not exist. Very much how I see the various psychological discoveries as not existing. Famous of which is the Dunning and Kruger effects.

Before we proceed with asking if a person will rape us, our mother, our wife, our children; do we know anything about this person? If this person is so famous for doing these things, what is the meaningful value in asking if they will do this to us? All the sages before and after can tell you that the man will do to you what he has been doing to everyone else. Your turn is not a question of what if, but a question of when it will occur.

From a fundamental system understanding: this is a failed system. Asking it to not fail is foolish to the highest degree.

There are other tendencies that are not known to the US president, or the China president.

I was managing a small outfit in Chiang Mai. Not a secret location, but we do not advertise it either. The purpose for our existence is a treaty signed in the 1960s. We fund the location, the Thai provide the people to operate it. So we usually have 4-6 military advisors there to help maintain the US Air Force standard.

When I arrived, I wanted to understand why we exist. No one can provide the answer. No one knows. The MOU vanished. Later I found the MOU in an online archive in France. And for reasons beyond my imagination, Google had vanished it now, so I cannot provide that link at all. So after 12 months of reading everything that exists, and things that do not exist, I located the source of our agreement with the host nation. I put it back into our records.

Later, I heard headquarters in the US wanted to do a review of our records, and assigned a Capt Gillian to the task of reviewing information on our site/location. I was expecting a call or email so he could learn about what is going on from the horse’s mouth. It turns out, he was able to review and rewrite a critical information about our operation, without ever setting foot there, or talking to the subject matter expert. His great US Air Force Academy training had prepared him for a smooth cut and paste operation. Where he copied the entire book that has wrong information, and signed his name, and republished it as the updated information.

The issue China will have with any agreement with the US, is that the agreement does not hold water. Does not hold weight.

The CIA will do what it wants.

The DoD will do what it wants.

More importantly, the shadows will do what it wants.

What good is a treaty that no one follows?

My case is extreme, where no one even read the treaty.

How is any treaty going to work with a country that does not follow treaties?

How do you hold a meeting with someone that just says whatever.

I had a 2 hours meeting with someone like this. 20 years in the US military, this person was going to retire for a well served career in the US military, where he did absolutely nothing.

What was the subject of our meeting:

We cannot have information that are false, being spread to outside or inside the shop. 2 hours later, I cannot get the individual to agree to not lie about mission issues.

TSgt Russel Hulbert

TSgt Joshua Darting

Apparently, this is what the military, the current military calls “natural leader”. Naturally a pimp is elected to run the country where the military is already full of it.

China should not wonder if the US will go to war with China - that is certain.

China should not wonder if the US will disrespect China - that is certain.

China should not wonder if the US will dishonor its treaties - that is certain.

Why meet and shake?

This is China communicating with the world, and 8 billion people. Look we’re not the bad guy. We’re not the evil guy. If shits hit the fan later, you know that I am a nice guy.

“It has been said that social occasions are only warfare concealed.”: Journey to Babel (Star Trek: The Original Series, written by D.C. Fontana)

This episode epitomized my grand world view, a reconciliation of my knowledge and experience which already exceed 99% of the Americans in my early 20s. 20 years later, and 500,000 USD in education from the USAF, and we can say that I am not your average American. Accounting for the fact I defeated the USAF in a grand game of chicken, where it used the combined military structure and budget to pursue me who has zero dollars to my name; I dare say I am well beyond the average. 0.000001 percent of the population may not capture the significance here. You will have to add a few hundred millions zeroes, or a few billions zeroes to really show the significance of a small Chinaman defeating the US in any war in any context. Not to mention at an HQ like the Pentagon or similar to a Pentagon. Where all the ancients live and refuse to die.

Records of the Three Kingdoms 220-280AD, and its novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms by Luo Guanzhong gave us a master class on war. Beyond The Art of War, beyond On War, beyond War and Peace: this is the master class of master classes. Without this, do not engage the Chinese on politics and war. It’s a very basic level and fundamental level for understanding life and war. War, Business, Sex—whatever the subject. Your PhD in international relations? Meaningless in comparison to a grand master in the Three Kingdoms period, and the novel that depicts all the life lessons for a man.

This meeting, this handshake, try not to waste too much energy learning anything.

While Trump is meeting Jinping, there are other Americans plotting how to do away with China.

Before you even bother to meet with Trump, why not make sure he’s able to defeat the secret government first? Why bother signing another document with JFK, if he’s just going to vanish tomorrow and a new JBJ blows the joint into another Hiroshima.

Human will do what human does.

USA will do what USA does.